¶1:
Any person nominated to a cabinet position within the first 100 days of the next presidency will resolve to YES. For the purposes of this market, cabinet positions include the heads of 15 executive departments or any other positions officially designated by the White House as part of the cabinet (provided those positions require confirmation by the Senate). Should the White House not issue a list of cabinet officials within the first 100 days of the next presidency, the list from the Biden administration will be used. For the purposes of this market, only nomination will be relevant, subsequent confirmation or failure of confirmation will not be relevant.
¶2:
A person will be considered to have been nominated once the Congressional Record or sessions of the Senate from C-SPAN show that the Senate has received their nomination.
¶3:
If a choice is a member of the cabinet when the next president is sworn in and remains in that cabinet position for the first 100 days of the next presidency without resigning, that choice will resolve to yes at the end of the first 100 days of the presidency, provided that they have served in that cabinet post for the entire 100 days.
¶4:
On Adding Answers:
I reserve the right to N/A any answer that is not in keeping with the spirit of this market
If an answer is added after that answer has already satisfied the criteria to resolve "Yes" that answer will resolve N/A
¶5:
Additional Info (11/7/2024)
Should one of the 15 executive departments be dissolved within the first 100 days the nominee will qualify if they meet the following criteria:
Either:
They are nominated to the position of head of one of the 15 executive departments prior to the dissolution of that department OR
They qualify as an official who requires Senate confirmation and are on the list of cabinet officials issued by the Trump administration. Note: in this contingency, should the Trump administration not issue such a list, the fact that the head of a dissolved executive department was on the list issued by the Biden administration will not qualify them for resolution as "yes" in this market.
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¶6:
Additional Info (11/11/2024):
If multiple lists of cabinet-level officials are issued by the Trump administration, a person will count as having served in the cabinet if their position was on the list issued by the Trump administration while they served in that position or while their nomination was pending before the Senate.
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¶7:
Additional Info (11/13/2024):
Given President Trump's new plans for the use of the recess appointment power the following rules will be added:
A nominee appointed during the recess of the Senate will be considered nominated on the date of the issuance of their commission, and will qualify to be resolved as "Yes' if the following conditions are met:
They remain in that position for 100 days
No one else is nominated to that position within those 100 days
1,000
3.0065% ! Hegseth at 50%, does that make sense?
@traders Please note this additional info:
Additional Info (11/13/2024):
Given President Trump's new plans for the use of the recess appointment power the following rules will be added:
A nominee appointed during the recess of the Senate will be considered nominated on the date of the issuance of their commission, and will qualify to be resolved as "Yes' if the following conditions are met:
They remain in that position for 100 days
No one else is nominated to that position within those 100 days
@traders Please take note of the following rules update:
Additional Info (11/11/2024):
If multiple lists of cabinet-level officials are issued by the Trump administration, a person will count as having served in the cabinet if their position was on the list while they served in that position or while their nomination was pending before the Senate.
@traders Please take note of the following new rules:
Additional Info (11/7/2024)
Should one of the 15 executive departments be dissolved within the first 100 days the nominee will qualify if they meet the following criteria:
Either:
They are nominated to the position of head of one of the 15 executive departments prior to the dissolution of that department OR
They qualify as an official who requires Senate confirmation and are on the list of cabinet officials issued by the Trump administration. Note: in this contingency, should the Trump administration not issue such a list, the fact that the head of a dissolved executive department was on the list issued by the Biden administration will not qualify them for resolution as "yes" in this market.
@traders Please note the following rules on adding answers:
On Adding Answers:
I reserve the right to N/A any answer that is not in keeping with the spirit of this market
If an answer is added after that answer has already satisfied the criteria to resolve "Yes" that answer will resolve N/A
@traders Please note the addition of the following rules:
A person will be considered to have been nominated once the Congressional Record shows that the Senate has received their nomination.
and
If a choice is a member of the cabinet when the next president is sworn in and remains in that cabinet position for the first 100 days of the next presidency without resigning, that choice will resolve to yes at the end of the first 100 days of the presidency, provided that they have served in that cabinet post for the entire 100 days.