With the current rules, it seems extremely unlikely that this market resolves to anything less than 90%. There's simply no way we get "an authoritative and clear statment that the Cybercab will in every sense cost more than $30,000".

Personally, I think Musk is full of shit and the cybercab will be significantly more expensive than $30k whenever it actually ends up being available for purchase, lol

@diracdeltafunk Didn't he say cybertruck would be less than 30k? And it costs 80k

@ian 40k I think but yeah

@traders Status update: Last night Tesla announced their Cybercab product. Elon Musk was unequivocal that the product would be eligible to be owned by members of the general public. However, as to price, Elon Musk was more equivocal. He stated that "we expect the cost to be below $30,000". In the interest of resolving this market on its terms promptly (i.e. not keeping the market open until the price lists in 2026), I will proceed as follows.

Should no new information be published about the Cybercab before it closes this market will resolve to 90% to account for the equivocal nature of the announcement and Elon Musk's admitted tendency to be inaccurate when it comes to timeline and price. Should there be additional statements by Musk or a Tesla spokesperson stating that the cost will be below $30,000 the market will resolve to 95%. Should there be statements before the market closes by both Musk and a Tesla spokesperson confirming that the price will be below $30,000 or a statement to shareholders confirming the same the market will resolve to 97%. Should the price be officially listed on the Tesla website before the market closes this market will resolve to "YES". If there is an authoritative and clear statment that the Cybercab will in every sense cost more than $30,000 this market will resolve to "NO".

However, should a majority of the holders in this market indicate, before December 1st, that they would like to keep the market open until the price is officially listed by liking my reply to this comment, the market will be kept open until then.

@AaronSimansky Like this comment to indicate that you would like to keep the market open until the price is officially listed.

@AaronSimansky I'd like to register my support for closing the market on the original close date (Dec 31, 2024) so that the market stays within the spirit of its title.

@AaronSimansky I am against resolving yet. "Expect" to cost $30k is not an officiall price announcement imo. Also the condition "eligible to be owned by members of the general public the market" is pending regulatory approval. I think the most fair way to resolve the market is if the car able to be pre-orderd with a deposit or wait list on the tesla website for 30k. I think the market currently beeing at 47% agrees with me that this should not be resolved yet

@AaronSimansky Also voting to wait until Dec 31.

@AaronSimansky @traders given the requisite number of people did not like the comment to keep the market open until the price is officially listed. This market will resolve as described above at the end of the year. This is consistent with the letter of this market's rules and intention which is that it is about the reveal and not the release of the car. For those would like there is another market that resolves based on the release price.

@AaronSimansky thanks for the clear resolution criteria!

@traders Please note the additional clarifying information in the description.

How does this resolve if Tesla reveals a Taxi but not targeted at the retail consumer market?

@MarkTerrano If a car is revealed that is <$30,000 and is eligible to be owned by members of the general public the market will resolve to YES.