The eternity in six hours paper gives 30 years to build a Dyson swarm, assuming we started tomorrow. This makes this market seem pretty close to physically impossible.

This market was spurred by my hearing an AGI lab employee saying it could probably be done in less than five years with Superintelligence, but I never looked into the claim.

This can't be serious? This is way more fantastical than 2001 was in the film of the same title relative to 1968

@wilkess maybe it's supposed to be 3050

@Tomoffer definitely 2050. this is wayyyy underpriced but opportunity costs + inability to profit from it much ;p

@TheBayesian yep, there's another market asking when AGI, specifically, will be able to do this on similar timescales. If it happens, humans will be long dead, given the scale of industry it would require. Maybe we'll be uploaded and you can safely bet yes ;)