Will Israel be found Guilty of Genocide at the ICJ ?
Will Israel be found Guilty of Genocide at the ICJ ?
Plus
86
Ṁ9459Dec 31
17%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
Sort by:
Can you clarify whether this question refers to the preliminary order that would enjoin Israel to halt military action on the grounds there is a prima facie case for genocide OR an ultimate ruling (which may be many years away) about whether Israel is guilty of genocide? If the latter, I presume if there is no verdict, then this question resolves no?
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
Will ICJ find Israel in breach of the Genocide Convention?
61% chance
Will the International Court of Justice (ICJ) determine that Israel committed genocide in Gaza?
21% chance
Will the International Court of Justice (ICJ) determine that Israel committed genocide in Gaza, Palestine?
20% chance
Will the ICJ punish/charge Israel of commiting genocide or attempting to commit genocide by the end of 2026?
20% chance
Will the ICJ determine that Israel committed war crimes in Gaza?
90% chance
Will Israel follow ICJ's 26 Jan non-binding ruling (to prevent genocide acts and improve humanitarian aid in Palestine)?
13% chance
Will Israel be held responsible for its war crimes is Gaza?
25% chance
Will the Palestinians be genocided?
20% chance
ICJ issues provisional measures against Israel in South Africa's genocide case by April 1st, 2025
1% chance
Will the Israeli Hamas conflict be described as a genocide in 10 years(2034)
20% chance