Background

Current US mortality rates (CDC National Vital Statistics, 2022):

• Overall population: ~0.9% annually (900 per 100,000)

• Ranges from 0.1% (age 30-34) to over 4% (age 80+)

• Accidental deaths account for ~0.04% annually (40 per 100,000)

• If all diseases and aging were cured, mortality would drop to accident-only rates (0.04%), representing a 95%+ reduction from current levels.

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves as YES if CDC WONDER database shows both of the following for the United States before the correct resolved date:

1. Total annual mortality rate drops to 0.05% or below.

2. This pattern holds across ALL age groups: between age 30 and age 84.

Fine Print:

• Annual mortality rate drop to 0.05% or below must be sustained for 12 consecutive months.

• Age group buckets in CDC WONDER: 30-34, 35-39, 40-44, 45-49, 50-54, 55-59, 60-64, 65-69, 70-74, 75-79, 80-84

Clarification:

If the resolution criteria are unsatisfied by Jan 1, 2100 the market resolves to “Never.”