Market Description
This market is a ranking competition in which human (who is alive as of Dec 14, 2025) are evaluated across three traits: Physical Strength, Intelligence, and Wealth.
Scoring System
For each trait, I will select 5-10 human with best winning chance to rank.
Ranks 1 through 10 will earn 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1 points respectively.
An option’s overall score is the sum of the points it receives across all three trait rankings.
The option with the highest overall score will be declared the winner of this market.
While personal preference and subjective judgment cannot be eliminated entirely, I will make a good-faith effort to answer questions and explain how I evaluate each trait and determine relative rankings.
I anticipate that cross intelligence comparison would be particularly subjective, if you ask me in the comments early on I will try my best to provide my answer to, for example, whether a specific chess world champion, fields medal winner, inventor, or hedge fund manager is considered more intelligent than the other option in my opinion.
Eligible Options
At a randomized closing time (to be announced), I will select the 5-10 options that I believe have the strongest prospects of winning.
Only these 5-10 options will be considered for all trait rankings and overall scoring.
I will make an announcement at least 2 days before the randomize closing period is set.
Market Resolution
The market will resolve based on the option that finishes with the highest overall score under the scoring system described above.
Notes:
If it is debatable whether certain human exist or is alive or not, I reserve the right to disqualify such option.
Update 2025-12-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): All three traits (Physical Strength, Intelligence, and Wealth) will be evaluated based on current levels as of the resolution date, not peak historical levels.
Update 2025-12-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Physical Strength will be evaluated primarily based on strength to move or carry objects (e.g., weightlifting capacity). Endurance activities like marathon running are considered a separate trait and will not be factored into the Physical Strength ranking. Skill in applying strength may matter at the margin (e.g., to the extent it affects how much weight someone can lift).
1,000
3.00
@bens This is just résumé worship. Yes, Page was smart in grad school. Lots of PhDs build clever systems. The leap from “good CS researcher in the 90s” to “auto-wins INT forever” is completely unjustified.
@bens Carlsen has a rigorous physical training regimen and would likely beat all the billionaires in terms of strength and lose to them in wealth. depending on how Ammon values chess ability over other sports ability in terms of intelligence, Carlsen might clear the athletes in INT and the billionaires in STR, while maybe scraping by in wealth with a 2 or 3… he does have a NW in the 10s of millions. Might be enough to get victory with the right combination of 10 ppl, especially if there are few ppl maxing INT and STR at the expense of WEA
@bens Carlsen is quite good at soccer, btw. Could have gone pro, supposedly.
@bens Also the idea that Carlsen “clears” billionaires in STR is pure cope. Training for endurance and posture so you don’t collapse during tournaments does not mean you out-strength people who actually lift seriously for decades.
@bens “Could have gone pro” is one of the weakest arguments imaginable. Tons of rich hobbyists and gifted teens “could have gone pro.” If he didn’t, then he didn’t. This adds literally nothing to the strength argument.
@prismatic He doesn't just train for endurance. He's played a lot of sports for decades and is supposedly pretty athletic. I know he also does lift to some degree. Strength might depend on whether you're going by power lifts or functional strength. He's certainly easily above the vast majority of billionaires in athleticism.
Larry Page, the 2nd richest man in the world, is a decade younger than Jeff Bezos and also does a daily strength training routine, fyi. I don't really see anyone catching him, especially because he's also... ummm... pretty frickin smart, compared with, ummm, Musk or Bezos.
How do you know he's smarter than the other people here? Also I think this will be wildly affected by who else is on the final list. If the other people on the list are all strong (like Zuckerberg or stronger) then that would tank him. If none of them are strong, then he'll be at an advantage. I think this format is very unpredictable. It would be more predictable if each person was just rated on a scale from 1-10 for each trait or whatever.
@bens im like fairly certain zuckerberg is more athletic. he does a lot of martial arts and has competed in actual competitions before. Also i'd would argue he is smarter considering larry page has done nothing post-google.
@ItsMe Zuckerberg just publicly talks about his exercise. I doubt he’s actually stronger than Larry Page. page is 5 inches taller and does strength training daily! Dude is a HUNK
@prismatic woah Larry Page is still the controlling shareholder of Google, wdym “hasn’t done anything post-Google”?!?! He also only stepped down as CEO in 2019!
What has Zuckerberg done “post Facebook”?
@prismatic Larry Page also has credible scientific/technical accomplishments in addition to being the second richest man in the world, which is far more than any of these other CEO-grifters can say
@bens This is pure fanfic. You’re inventing Larry Page feats because you want them to be true. Zuckerberg literally competes in BJJ tournaments with records you can look up. ‘He’s taller so he’s stronger’ is middle-school logic.
@bens What has Larry Page done post-Google besides disappear? Zuckerberg built Meta, shipped VR hardware, pivoted the company twice, and is still actually running things. Page stepped back and vibes on wealth.
@bens Larry Page’s big technical contribution was 25 years ago. Since then it’s just capital ownership. Zuckerberg is still hands-on with product, infra, and AI strategy today. Being rich isn’t a scientific accomplishment.
@bens You’re confusing ‘I like this guy’ with ‘he’s unbeatable.’ Age, strength, and intelligence aren’t Pokémon stats you just max out because you feel like it. This format punishes speculation, and Page lives off speculation.
@AmmonLam Is physical strength purely based on maximum muscle strength or do things like strength to weight ratio, or physical endurance, or skill in applying that strength apply as well?
@Nat I would say mostly strength to move or carry object. I consider endurance such as ability to run a marathon a separate trait. Skill in applying strength might matter at the margin, for example, to the extent that the skill affects how much weight someone can lift.