Market Resolution Criteria:
This market will resolve if the displayed probability for the "Yes" outcome on this specific market reaches or falls below 49% at any point before the market’s scheduled close. The resolution will be based on the probability displayed on the market page and the market’s trading history.

This market will resolve "No" if the displayed probability for the "Yes" outcome on this specific market never reaches or falls below 49% before the market's scheduled close. The resolution will be based on the probability displayed on the market page.

Penalty Rule:
If the market reaches or falls below 49%, a penalty will apply to each Yes holder with more than 5,000 Yes shares at that moment. For each such holder, 30% will be deducted from the resolution percentage.
Example: If two Yes holders hold over 5,000 shares, the market will resolve to 40%.

Verification Procedure:
I will not be available to record the positions when the 49% criterion is triggered. It is the responsibility of No holders to take a screenshot of the holdings as soon as the 49% threshold is reached. The final resolution will be based on the screenshot with the closest timestamp after the 49% criterion was triggered.

Betting with Multiple Accounts Prohibited:
Usual Manifold Community Guidelines apply. Betting on this market with multiple accounts is not allowed. Only accounts with more than 20 trades in the last month (as of October 25th) must first request approval from me before betting. Any attempt to circumvent this rule—such as using your pet’s or family member’s account—is prohibited. I reserve the right to make the final determination on whether an account is attempting to circumvent this rule. If there’s dispute about whether I have betted with multiple accounts, the resolution right of this market will be handed to a mod.