Will a bill to eliminate or defund NPR make it to the President's desk by the end of 2025?
Will a bill to eliminate or defund NPR make it to the President's desk by the end of 2025?
➕
Plus
27
Ṁ1558
2026
49%
chance

As it sounds, the bill must pass both houses of Congress, but I've elided the President's response to it to dodge any proxy questions about electoral victory there. The bill does not need to be primarily about defunding NPR - it's still YES if it's a small amendment tucked into the 15000th page of an omnibus. I will count it as YES even if the bill does not completely annul all government funding for NPR, so long as it's at least a 50% cut, or potentially if it enacts other provisions that seem intended to make it difficult for NPR to meet the conditions to receive funding, etc. (in my sole judgement).

Other sorts of operational interference might also be sufficient to trigger a practical YES to the elimination fork, but they'll have to meet a very high bar.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00


Sort by:
1d

I'm assuming that an executive order isn't enough for a yes here?

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules