Surely theres no reason to vote yes. This market is equivalent to one labelled "This will resolve NO in 2030" (since either it'll resolve NO or manifold won't exist).

I guess in practice you'd vote YES if you think (a) you're right and (b) other people will (irrationally) choose to vote YES and you can sell it to them at a profit. Collective madness!

@Waffloid Manifold doesn't require humans to exist.

@Waffloid or AI, more to the point of this market.

@MartinRandall ha, fair enough

Assuming we're counting all things people currently call AI?

@Joshua Yes, that sounds right. It would be quite ambiguous to try to account for a changing definition of AI. Probably I would use the same definition of AI as this market:

https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-d8733b2114a8

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?

18% chance. If humanity is still around on Jan 1, 2030, then this market resolves to NO. If humanity is not around but AI(s) are then this market resolves to YES. If neither humanity nor AIs are around then this market does not resolve. See also: @/Tripping/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-6d…

@Ansel I think that market implicitly assumes an AI is capable of resolving markets without human support, which I think is a little beyond current capabilities.