Will at least 5.0% of the US population smoke cigarettes in 2030?
Will at least 5.0% of the US population smoke cigarettes in 2030?
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In 2020, according to the CDC, 12.5% of the US population smoked cigarettes.
Will at least 5.0% of the U.S. population smoke cigarettes in 2030, as reported by the CDC, in the BRFSS or other data?
https://www.cdc.gov/tobacco/data_statistics/fact_sheets/adult_data/cig_smoking/index.htm
Resolves YES if 5.0% (rounded to 1 d.p., so >=4.950000%) or more smoke cigarettes, or NO otherwise, using BRFSS data if it is available, or if not, the figure used most prominently by the CDC.
Jan 27, 12:15am: Will at least 5% of the US population smoke cigarettes in 2030? → Will at least 5.0% of the US population smoke cigarettes in 2030?
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What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
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