Will Congress extend or increase Child Tax Credit by the end of 2025?
5
Ṁ6292026
88%
chance
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Without extentsion, the increased CTC and its expanded refundability will revert to lower levels. This will resolve to yes if legislative action is taken such that the CTC will not fall in 2026.
Update 2025-01-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Threshold: $2,000
Yes: If the CTC is extended at $2,000 or more.
No: If the CTC is smaller than $2,000.
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The House Ways & Means Committee released draft text on Friday that included a $2,500 CTC from 2025-28, followed by a $2,000 CTC inflation-indexed with a 2024 base year: https://docs.house.gov/meetings/WM/WM00/20250513/118260/BILLS-119CommitteePrintih.pdf
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