What is more likely to happen in the russian invasion of Ukraine by 2027
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22%
Ukraine withstands until europe and the US ramp up production and Russia collapses and fragments like the spanish empire before it.
2%
The US and europe abandon Ukraine over politics and disagreements, likely NATO and the EU collapse due to folding to military agression
70%
It reaches a stalemate and the south east of Ukraine becomes separate state eventually annexed by russia, Ukraine joins EU and NATO
2%
Russia conquers Ukraine and then the rest of europe as they turn around in fear and cowardice, unwilling to fight
4%
Overall escalation continues in flashpoints around the world, nuclear war renders previous options irrelevant (congratulations if you live in the southern hemisphere, you might live to get an anwser correct!)
Mounting multi-sensory data, loss of stigma, internet & social media providing rapid spread of news and bolder NHI behaviour will push or transparency and disclosure of NHI intervention on the planet in 2024.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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There are 3 markets basically about Russia nuking Ukraine, and two days ago they were 9%, 7% and 8%. So purple variant in my opinion should have higher percent than current 4%.
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