Russian attacks or invades Estonia by mid 2026
Basic
12
Ṁ17202026
7%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Credible sources, battles or clear Russian troops on the other side of the border. Or, bombs them, or does drone strikes. Or other kinetic attacks.
Threats leading to concessions of territory or political union would not count because it's too hard to evaluate. There has to be at least a shot fired.
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The community prediction on Metaculus for a related question ("Will Russia annex any part of any Baltic country by 2035?") is currently 4% (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8786/russian-annexation-in-the-baltics-before-2035/).
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