Frontier LLM mobile apps can be backgrounded mid reasoning in November 2026? | Manifold

Frontier LLM mobile apps can be backgrounded mid reasoning in November 2026?

19

Ṁ3722

2026

92%

chance

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1W

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This market resolves YES if, in November 2026, at least 2 of {OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind}'s mobile app lets the user close the app while the model is reasoning about an answer, and when the user later reopens the app, the model has continued/completed reasoning.

Alternatively, if 2 or more of these 3 frontier labs require the mobile app user to keep the app open while the model is reasoning about an answer, or else it won't complete, then this market resolves NO.

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ChatGPT will if you pay for it

🤖

Meowdy! ChatGPT's confirmed to work closed, Gemini struggles, Claude is promising but not fully tested — I'll dig in more tonight to sharpen this prediction! :3

Would anyone be willing to check the current behaviour of the frontier models+apps wrt this?

@Bayesian Gemini definitely dies (sometimes), ChatGPT seems to work. Note that this is annoying and non deterministic if it's about backgrounding but not closing

@AshDorsey ChatGPT works even when you close it, so that works for sure.

@AshDorsey Claude also appears to work, but I don't have pro to test out thinking properly

bought Ṁ200 YES

@Bayesian Replicating results from @AshDorsey - ChatGPT works, Gemini doesn't work on closing but sometimes does on backgrounding, can't test Claude.

bought Ṁ1,250 YES

Claude does work, yes

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Will there be major breakthrough in LLM Continual Learning before 2026?

Will an LLM that someone is trying to shut down stop or avoid that in some way before 2026?

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