Gemini 3.0 scores 1500+ on Chatbot Arena in 2025? (Without Style Control)

Ṁ28k

Dec 15

chance

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Gemini 3 on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches an Arena Score of 1500+ (With "Style control" unchecked) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Update 2025-12-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve based on the overall Arena Score on the leaderboard, not any specific category score.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

Get

1,000

and

3.00

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in any category?

@MyDreamIsHere2018 No in overall

its a scam

@121 what

@Bayesian it is above 1500 in many categories

Might change when it's out of pre-release

Down to 1490, with a CI of 9. I'm still going to hodl my tiny stake.

It's 1495 now without style control and 1501 with. Behind it is 2.5 pro with 1465. I think it will squeeze out a 5 more elo over the next couple weeks.

https://x.ai/news/grok-4-1

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bought Ṁ22 YES

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