Some NO at 64.

Do murder trials frequently get scheduled and fully handled within 13 months? My prior for that might just be wrong, but I don't think they do.

Also family is wealthy and likely to hire strong law team that will fight hard for delays, mental health procedural requests etc.

@JoshuaPhillipsLivingReaso murder trials on that timeline happen reasonably often. If I was on his defense team I would want this trial as soon as possible to capitalize on the public’s fickle sympathy.

https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-a-manifold-user-be-convicted-o

this market should be at a greater price than this market

@Robincvgr oh it's rose a lot since the last time I've seen it lol

Can someone explain the No case? Is it just that he dies?

@FergusArgyll that the court case is delayed for a while and it takes more than a year to complete

according to chatgpt uh

@FergusArgyll

also
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jury_nullification

maybe that could foreseeably happen?

lmao that would be hilarious

and if he pleas guilty I assume this resolves yes?

@Riley12 good question and i was currently workout out how i should modify the description to make that clear, but yes presumably everyone understood that to be how it was intended to resolve in that eventuality. I added:
This market will resolve YES if:

• Luigi Mangione pleads guilty to murder charges in connection with Brian Thompson's death before January 1st, 2026.

sweepified