Will the best AI score on the IMO 2025 be more like AlphaProof or o3?
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Ṁ4831
Jul 1
More like AlphaProof93%

For any announcement about performance on the IMO 2025, within 2 months of the IMO 2025.

If the system with the best score is a system that uses both AlphaProof-like AI and o3-like AI, and it is known which fraction of problems were solved by each, I will resolve this market to a fraction relative to each type of system's # of points obtained.

It will be up to my judgement (so I won't take a position), but I will base my positions on known technical details and discussions with people more knowledgeable than me, if the result is ambiguous. May resolve N/A in the worst cases, such as if a company verifiably achieved the best score but doesn't share their method at all.

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No "other" option? Do we really think today's reasoning models vs. tree search will be the only options in time?

hmmmm I would lean toward making a best-effort judgement as to which one it's closer to, or N/A if it's much more different from either as they are to one another

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