Will GPT-5.2's METR 50% time horizon exceed 3 hours 30 minutes? | Manifold

Will GPT-5.2's METR 50% time horizon exceed 3 hours 30 minutes?

8

Ṁ182

2027

35%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Whatever version of GPT-5.2 scores the best on the METR time horizon is the version of GPT-5.2 relevant to this market. That could be a future 5.2 codex model or the current model as it is.

3 hours 30 minutes exactly would resolve no.

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