Opus 4.5's METR time horizon beats GPT-5.1's?
13
Ṁ717Jan 1
80%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The 50% time horizon will be used for resolution. 2 hours and 42 minutes is the length of the METR 50% time horizon for GPT-5.1.-Codex-Max and will be used for the purposes of resolving this market. Ties resolve no.
Update 2025-12-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Gemini 3's METR time horizon has not been released by the end of the year, the resolution date will be extended.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
@1bets Gemini 3's METR time horizon hasn't been released so tbd (and I will extend the resolution date in the unlikely event we don't have it by the end of the year)
Related questions
Related questions
Opus 4.5's METR time horizon beats Gemini 3.0 Pro's?
81% chance
Claude Opus 4.5's METR-50 time horizon
Grok 4.20's METR 50% time horizon
Gemini 3.0 Pro outperforms GPT-5 on METR 50% time horizon?
81% chance
Will GPT-5.1 have a longer METR time horizon than Gemini 3?
21% chance
Will GPT-5.2 surpass 3 hours in METR time horizon?
74% chance
Before 2026, will Gemini 3.0 exceed GPT-5 in Metr estimated time horizon?
77% chance
Will GPT-5.2's METR 50% time horizon exceed 3 hours 30 minutes?
30% chance
METR releases Claude 4.5 Opus results before Gemini 3 results?
61% chance
Grok 5's METR 50% time horizon