I will not bet on this market.
Please feel free to add your own prop bets to the market. Questions may be broad (Nuclear Weapon used in aggression) or specific (Trump's June 22, 2025 Cease-fire declaration is not violated for at least 7 days), but should have clear resolution criteria.
This is a market for prop bets related to any and all military/political conflicts worldwide from 2025 through the end of 2027.
I will do my best to quickly resolve questions correctly in a timely fashion. I tend to pay attention to international news.
All questions, unless specifying a date, must be assumed to have "by midnight UTC ±0 on 31 Dec 2027" as part of their resolution criteria.
I will default to the question creator's resolution criteria when necessary.
To assist in correct and timely resolutions, I encourage traders to post news articles/sources supporting a resolution.
I will edit/remove AI updates that are incorrect and put them under a header for the specific question they pertain to. If an AI update is placed under a question header, it is safe to assume it correctly reflects question resolution
Jordan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords
Update 2025-06-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This answer will resolve to YES only if Jordan becomes a signatory of the specific treaty known as the 'Abraham Accords'. Jordan is not currently a signatory.
1+ deaths attributed to a rogue AI
Update 2025-06-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a question about whether a suicide linked to a chatbot would count for a hypothetical prop bet, the creator specified their resolution criteria:
There must be a direct correlation between the AI's actions and the death.
The AI must be behaving like a rogue AI (maliciously, unpredictably, or contrary to its programming). An AI acting as it was designed would not meet this bar.
1,000
3.00
BANGKOK, July 25 (Reuters) - Thailand's foreign ministry said on Friday it agrees in principle with a Malaysian proposal for a ceasefire between Thai and Cambodian forces and will consider the plan, but that it must be based on "appropriate on-the-ground conditions".
"It must be stated that throughout the day, Cambodian forces have continued their indiscriminate attacks on Thai territory," the ministry said in a post on X. "Cambodia’s actions demonstrate a lack of good faith and continue to place civilians in danger."
@BlackCrusade wow, somehow I didn't even know this conflict was happening, near total blind spot in western mainstream media
@JussiVilleHeiskanen comparing the markets, it apparently more likely that Turkey invokes article 4 than for anyone (including turkey) invoking article 4. Sounds like some free Mana to be made.
Thailand's Constitutional Court has suspended Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who has come under mounting pressure to resign over her leaked phone conversation with former Cambodian leader Hun Sen.
The clip, in which Paetongtarn called him "uncle" and criticised a Thai military commander, sparked public anger and a petition for her dismissal, which the court is now considering.
That could make Paetongtarn the third politician in the powerful Shinawatra clan - which has dominated Thai politics for the past two decades - to lose power before completing their term.
@JussiVilleHeiskanen a major advance in energy technology could have impacts on political conflict, for better or for worse.
If a major state suddenly reduced its dependency on oil or coal for energy, this could have large implications for conflict in the Middle East.
"China is the only one capable of influencing Iran. Iran would collapse without China buying its oil," - Israel’s Consul General in Shanghai urges China to curb Iran’s military and nuclear ambitions.
Israeli courts postpone Netanyahu's corruption trial at request of Donald Trump.
The upcoming 2025 BRICS Summit is scheduled for July 6-7.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/thai-protesters-call-prime-minister-paetongtarns-resignation-2025-06-28/
Largest anti-government protest since 2023
Triggered by border dispute, leaked phone call
Government facing possible no-confidence vote
Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo are expected to sign a United States-mediated peace deal on Friday following several months of conflict that has killed thousands of people and displaced millions in resource-rich eastern DRC.
Earlier in April, the US Department of State released conditions that would guide the negotiations, although it is not confirmed if they were included in the final agreement. They were categorised as such:
Sovereignty: Both sides agreed to recognise and respect each other’s territorial borders.
Security: Both committed to not supporting any armed groups and to establishing a joint security mechanism to target militias.
Economic issues: Both countries agreed to use existing regional framework structures, such as the East African Community, to expand transparent trade and investment opportunities, including those to be facilitated by “the US government or US investors” in mineral supply chains, hydropower development and national park management.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/27/world/europe/israel-iran-enforcement-policy.html
He said Israel’s policy would be similar to what it has done in the aftermath of its war against the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah in Lebanon. The United States brokered a truce to end that war as well after Israel killed most of the group’s leadership.
Since then, Israel has bombed targets in Lebanon frequently, even though Hezbollah has refrained from attacks on Israeli territory.
Mr. Katz told another network, Channel 13, that Israel’s policy on Iran would be “like in Lebanon — just times 100.”
Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Aragchi, warned that “Iran is not Lebanon,” in an interview with state television on Friday.
“We do not accept any cease-fire or halt in operations that implies an agreed-upon arrangement,” he said, adding that he had “serious doubts” about Israel’s commitment to the deal.
He pointed to Israel’s frequent airstrikes in Lebanon and Mr. Netanyahu’s decision to break a cease-fire with Hamas in March to restart military operations in the Gaza war.
“They declare a truce, but assume that the other side is weak, then proceed to violate it themselves and attempt to prevent any response,” he said.
@BlackCrusade this happened before market creation so I assume this specifically would not count, but to clarify would something like this count? https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-features/chatgpt-obsession-mental-breaktown-alex-taylor-suicide-1235368941/
@TotalVerb I have a hard time saying this event would resolve to yes. Rolling Stone also tends to be a pretty "bad" source for news due to their strong editorializing and sensationalism.
I can see how this event could possibly resolve this yes, but I have difficulty directly correlating the AI's actions to the death, and difficulty with this meeting the definition of a rouge AI (behaving maliciously, unpredictably, and/or contrary to it's initial programming). The AI did what LLMs do in this case; it was being a sycophant which is, as I understand it, playing directly into how it was aligned and programmed.
If the AI had gone out of it's way to convince someone to commit murder without being manipulated (prompted) into doing so and the person interacting with the AI did so, I would say that would be a clear YES resolution. The key is that the AI "chooses" to manipulate the person rather than just playing into their strange roleplay fantasies as that directly contradicts alignment and programming.
I reserve the right to be wrong 😉
And yes, this happened before the market opened, so this specific case would not resolve this.