Resolved monthly throughout 2025 based on updates to the Carnegie Endowment Protest Tracker:
https://carnegieendowment.org/features/global-protest-tracker?lang=en
Itβs impossible to predict exactly when the tracker will be updated, so this market may close early or be extended a few times mid month.
Resolves YES if there is a protest of >10,000 participants. NO if the country makes it to the end of 2025 with no protests that large.
Once resolved, countries canβt be re-added until the active protest is finished (too confusing otherwise). Countries only. Non-countries resolved as NA.
1,000
3.00Surprising that the source doesn't seem to mention the UK summer 2024 far right riots over the southport knife attack, easily the most high profile and destructive protest in the country the past decade
@TheAllMemeingEye I chose them because they have a methodology, but there are gaps I canβt explain. Next time it happens that thereβs a protest we expect but donβt see, Iβll write to them and ask.
@TheAllMemeingEye looks like I conflated the German protests, but both met the criteria. Thanks for catching that!
Double-checked that the resolution is otherwise correct.
Serbia resolves YES , but of course only when it is mentioned on the tracker
Protest market for 2025 up! First resolution will be mid February. End of year special! Just 25M to add countries.