First year in which the U.S. gets ≥5% of its energy from solar

Ṁ166

2028

2025

19%

2026

50%

2027

13%

2028

2029

Other

Resolves to the first year where the chart in this page indicates that share of US energy consumption by source for solar is at or above 5%. Note that this has only updated after some months into the following year, so it may take time to resolve.

United States: Energy Country Profile

United States: Many of us want an overview of how much energy our country consumes, where it comes from, and if we’re making progress on decarbonizing our energy mix. This page provides the data for your chosen country across all of the key metrics on this topic.

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a quick linear regression (NOTE: X-axis is years-2020; Y-axis is log of percent) reveals that the trend is very, very close to an exponential, in particular very roughly Y = 0.2534 + 0.1959*X. (seriously; R^2 = 0.9959 and you don't get data this good very often.) So if Y ~ ln(5) = 1.609 then X should be about 6.9, in other words the first year should be 2027 or thereabouts.

@duck_master Lol that's an incredibly tight fit.

bought Ṁ6 YES

Solar was 2.83% in 2024 so needs to double (accounts for growth in total)

Total solar capacity in 2024 was about 200 GW, with 50 GW in new installations in 2024.

I think we have fast growth in new capacity through 2027, followed by temporary stagnation or decline, due to the accelerated end of tax credits in OBB. So could take 3-4 years?

Energy in terms of electric power? Or total energy consumption?

I interpret it as the latter, but I guess you will have to read the OWID fine print if you want the specifics.

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