What tactic will prove the most mathlib lemmas at the end of 2026? | Manifold

What tactic will prove the most mathlib lemmas at the end of 2026?

Basic

7

Ṁ702

2027

2%

simp

38%

aesop

2%

rw_search

1.7%

sorry

4%

duper

52%

Other

Sometime around the resolution date, I will write a script that samples random tactic-mode lemmas from mathlib, and replaces the proof of those lemmas with an invocation of a single tactic. This market resolves to whichever tactic of the ones provided as answers proves the biggest fraction of lemmas.

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Depending on the setup exact? will get a 100% success rate. How will you prevent that?

By "prove", is it ok if there are warnings? Because I know of a tactic that has a 100% success rate 😉

@tfae screw the innuendo, I'm going all in on sorry

@tfae Lol.

But no. Feel free to ask more questions about what counts as proof, but sorry does not count.

@BoltonBailey it was still worth it for the meme

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Will aesop be able to replace >50% of mathlib proofs by 2025-11-26?

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Will any AI be able to explain formal language proofs to >=50% of IMO problems by the start of 2025?

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