Which blog posts will get more likes on my Substack in 2025?
0
2026
50%
Prediction Market Thoughts pt 3: The Holy Trinity of Bots
50%
Prediction Market Thoughts pt 4: Convexity of Preference
50%
Analysis of "Relative Brier Score" (See Discord)
50%
Kessler Syndrome is Self-Defeating
50%
Kessler Syndrome Mitigation through Ley Lines
50%
Quantum Commodities
50%
Surface-Orbiting Megastructures
50%
Krugman Interstellar Trade Redux: The Economic Twin Paradox
50%
The Quantum Milkman
50%
The Production of Outer Space: Communism in Orbit
50%
Quantum GMW Transform

Listed as answers are a number of drafts/post ideas I have for my blog, The Quantum Milkman. This resolves N/A for any ideas that do not get fully written and put onto the blog by the end of November 2025. Then, at the end of 2025, I will take all the ones that did get added to the blog and count the likes. Any posts that have an above-median number of likes among these resolve YES. Any posts that have a below-median number of likes resolve NO.

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I see no one has been trading here (understandably in retrospect, since there's not a lot of information available about the options). This market might be better off as a decision market about what posts would get a better response. Hopefully no one minds if I ninja-edit the criteria.

Kessler Syndrome one sounds good

@asmith Did a particular one sound more interesting? I think I would likely put these up one after the other as a mini-series.

@BoltonBailey Both

There is a draft that shares the name with the blog itself?

@wadimiusz Yes 🥛

@BoltonBailey any hints as to the contents?

@wadimiusz That one in particular is about what is sometimes called "Quantum Sneakernet" though at the time I named the blog I didn't realize it was already an idea with some traction.

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