Will an earthquake over 6.4 magnitude happen before 2026 in the USA?
Basic
19
Ṁ1218
2026
98%
chance

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
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@mods I suspect creator is inactive due to lack of activity. I did ping him 3 days ago in case. Can we get a ruling on whether there is a distance offshore that counts as "in the USA"? e.g. do territorial waters counts? 12km offshore count? What is the limit?

@LyetKynes 70 km southwest of Ferndale, northern California. Ferndale about 5km inland?

@ChristopherRandles this one is offshore too. Earthquakes that occur inland in the US and over 6.4 seem to be sparser, something like 0.25 per year.

@LyetKynes Is 92km from Sand point in the USA? It was offshore and hence my question below.

You are braver than me in betting on it.

@ChristopherRandles I’d say the standard is “attributing” the earthquake to the nearest country / populated place, unless there’s a geographical reference point in the ocean. Given the creator will probably not answer (he’s been away for over a year), I placed my bet on my gut feeling. If @mods decide otherwise I’m screwed.

@BowieHill Does "in the USA" include territorial waters and/or what distance offshore from nearest USA land?
(offshore as I assume less than 1km into Canada or Mexico from USA would not cause a yes?)

opened a Ṁ100 NO at 67% order

@BowieHill can you please also add "Earthquake" tag? https://manifold.markets/topic/earthquake

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