How much time will pass between an LLM being released that beats GPT4 and the next OpenAI LLM being released? (+ANSWERS)
How much time will pass between an LLM being released that beats GPT4 and the next OpenAI LLM being released? (+ANSWERS)
Plus
12
Ṁ5652030
6%
1 week
22%
1 month
29%
6 months
15%
Never (ie OpenAI releases a better model before anyone else can)
8%
3 months
20%
Inspired by this xeet https://twitter.com/chheplo/status/1762169694516301944
How much time will pass between a non-OpenAI LLM being released (like Gemini, Mixtral, etc) that beats GPT4, and OpenAI releasing their next LLM (GPT4.5, or GPT5, etc)?
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Claude 3 Opus looks like it beats GPT4, but I'll wait and see when some more independent benchmarks come out and verify the fact
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
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