How much time will pass between an LLM being released that beats GPT4 and the next OpenAI LLM being released? (+ANSWERS) | Manifold

How much time will pass between an LLM being released that beats GPT4 and the next OpenAI LLM being released? (+ANSWERS)

Plus

12

Ṁ565

2030

4%

1 week

15%

1 month

53%

6 months

10%

Never (ie OpenAI releases a better model before anyone else can)

5%

3 months

12%

Other

Inspired by this xeet https://twitter.com/chheplo/status/1762169694516301944

How much time will pass between a non-OpenAI LLM being released (like Gemini, Mixtral, etc) that beats GPT4, and OpenAI releasing their next LLM (GPT4.5, or GPT5, etc)?

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#️ Technology

#GPT-4 speculation

#Artificial Intelligence

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Claude 3 Opus looks like it beats GPT4, but I'll wait and see when some more independent benchmarks come out and verify the fact

bought Ṁ9 YES

So when does “never” resolve?

opened a Ṁ250 YES at 20% order

@Johne5ee I assume it resolves if the next OpenAI LLM is released without a competitor beating GPT-4

@bohaska Correct intepretation, although I could have phrased it better. I'll see if I can add a clarification

@bohaska They released o1 mini and preview. Does that count?

@SarM I'm not the creator, but if I were, I would say Claude 3.5 Sonnet definitely beat GPT-4, and that o1 preview definitely beats Sonnet

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