When will the EU cease to exist?
When will the EU cease to exist?
Plus
30
Ṁ70152160
4%
Up to 2028
6%
2029-2036
10%
2037-2049
20%
2050-2070
20%
2071-2104
19%
2105-2159
21%
2160 or after
Resolves according to the [Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19836/end-of-the-eu/).
If the answer buckets seem weird, that's because they have a Fibonacci number of years (starting with 5). This was easier and more integer than using exponentials.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
@AntoineBonnet I wonder to what extent this is due to the different question format - continuous there and these weird Fibonacci buckets I came up with here.
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will the European Union dissolve before or during 2030?
2% chance
Will the European Union lose another member by 2035?
30% chance
Will any current member of the EU announce they are leaving before December 31st 2025
8% chance
Will the European Union become a country by 2100?
11% chance
EU officially a federation by January 1, 2040?
34% chance
When will the EU abolish daylight saving time?
Will any nation leave the EU by 2025
2% chance
Will some members (1 or more) leave the EU (European Union) before 2027?
9% chance
Will the EU federalize into one state by 2030?
8% chance
In how many years will the EU federalise
-