How many AI systems will OpenAI announce in one year, starting March 19, 2024?
Plus
13
Ṁ470Mar 20
91%
2 or more
83%
3 or more
43%
4 or more
27%
5 or more
To avoid complications in resolving this market, I define an OpenAI model as announced when it appears on https://openai.com/research under "Models." For reference, here is the current list, as of March 18:
This list looks complete enough to me that I'm comfortable using it as a proxy for model announcements. However, note that e.g. GPT-3.5 would not have counted as a new model, but OpenAI Codex would have.
I may bet in this market.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
I would really expect o1 to count as a new model, but it looks like OpenAI has neglected to update their website... We have a few months, but let me know what you all think I should do if it still isn't updated by then. Or if anyone knows somebody from OpenAI, tell them to get their act together lol
Related questions
Related questions
Will OpenAI reach an annualized revenue of 5 Billion $$$s by the end of 2024?
51% chance
What will be the sum of OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI's publicly reported annualized revenues by December 31st 2025?
When will OpenAI Announce AI Robots?
Will OpenAI announce a major breakthrough in AI alignment in 2024?
19% chance
Will OpenAI Announce AI Robots in 2024?
9% chance
Will another organization surpass OpenAI in the public sphere of awareness of AI progress by the end of 2024?
8% chance
Will OpenAI name a year by which they expect to have achieved AGI by 01/01/2025?
14% chance
when will OpenAI have announced they have achieved AGI?
Will OpenAI announce it has achieved AGI in 2024?
5% chance
Will OpenAI have >$1 billion in revenue in 2024?
98% chance