Will I be diagnosed with cancer by 2035?
Will I be diagnosed with cancer by 2035?
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The market will resolve YES if I report that I have been diagnosed with any type of cancer by the end of 2035. The diagnosis must be based on valid medical tests or procedures. The type of cancer and the method of diagnosis are irrelevant for the market outcome.
I do not have any family history for cancer, other than some minor late-stage skin cancer that my Grandma has.
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@LachlanMunro Some sources say Carson was born Nov. 30, 1993, which would make him 29. However, not all info in these reports is correct.
predictedNO 2y
this makes it look like adult males in their 30s have a less than 1% chance of being diagnosed with cancer:
https://www.cancerresearchuk.org/health-professional/cancer-statistics/incidence/age#heading-Zero
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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