Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2028, any of the top five Linux distributions listed on DistroWatch have officially replaced Xorg with XLibre (or any other X-server) as their default X-server. The top five distributions will be determined based on DistroWatch's rankings as of the end of 2028. Official announcements from the respective distribution's development team or official website will serve as the primary sources for resolution. If no such replacement occurs by the specified date (including due to refusal to support any X-server, including Xorg), the market will resolve to "No."

Background

XLibre is a fork of the Xorg, aiming to modernize and enhance the existing Xorg codebase. The project was founded by a former contributor to Xorg, in response to perceived stagnation and internal challenges within the Xorg project. XLibre focuses on code cleanups, enhanced functionality, and aims to provide a more actively maintained alternative to Xorg.

As of July 2025, the top five Linux distributions on DistroWatch are:

1. Linux Mint

2. CachyOS

3. MX Linux

4. EndeavourOS

5. Debian

   The adoption of XLibre by any of top-5 distributions would signify a notable shift in the Linux ecosystem.

Considerations

• Adoption Timeline: Given that XLibre was introduced in mid-2025, integrating it into major distributions may require significant development and testing time.

• Community Reception: The success of XLibre's adoption will depend on its stability, performance improvements over Xorg, and the community's response to the project's direction and governance.

• Wayland Competition: Many distributions have been transitioning to Wayland as a replacement for Xorg. XLibre's adoption may be influenced by how it compares to Wayland in terms of features and support.

• Project Stability: As a new fork, XLibre's long-term viability and support are yet to be established, which may affect its adoption by major distributions.

• Update 2025-07-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified what qualifies as an "alternative X-server":

  • Compatibility layers like Xwayland and wayback will not count.

  • The replacement must be a standalone project that is independent of the Wayland project.