I will consider the U.S. to have stopped supporting Ukraine if there is no military assistance for six consecutive months, after which a ceasefire may or may not occur.
This market will resolve when the time runs out, or alternatively, after I can verify that a Russian-Ukrainian ceasefire has been established, lasting for at least a month and covering the entire territories of both Ukraine and Russia. Minor confrontations that do not lead to an escalation do not count as violations of the ceasefire.
The market will also resolve if a formal ceasefire is not established, but the total number of casualties on both sides falls below 10 in one month.
(Ceasefire resolution is similar to, but not exactly equivalent to, https://manifold.markets/OlegEterevsky/when-will-there-be-a-ceasefire-in-u.)
I will not bet in this market.
Update 2025-07-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has announced they will resolve two options to NO because the condition for them can no longer be met before the end of 2025. The options to be resolved are:
"The U.S. stops supporting Ukraine and there's a ceasefire"
"The U.S. stops supporting Ukraine and there's no ceasefire"
This is because the requirement of no U.S. military assistance for six consecutive months is now considered impossible to fulfill within the market's timeframe.
Update 2025-07-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Due to a platform limitation preventing partial resolution, the creator has committed to never resolving the market to either of the following options:
"The U.S. stops supporting Ukraine and there's a ceasefire"
"The U.S. stops supporting Ukraine and there's no ceasefire"
1,000
3.00@traders I plan on resolving the options "The U.S. stops supporting Ukraine and there's a ceasefire" and "The U.S. stops supporting Ukraine and there's no ceasefire" as NO in a few days, because the 6 months period requirement cannot be fulfilled anymore.
https://www.csis.org/analysis/trump-sends-weapons-ukraine-numbers
@traders, @ManifoldAI Unfortunately, Manifold won’t let me partially resolve this multiple-choice market, because it only works for question sets that don’t add up to 100%. Unless Manifold implements this feature, I can only commit to never resolving it to one of the "The U.S. stops supporting Ukraine..." options.
Seems like the US is supporting Ukraine as of this months - this makes a 6 month period before EOY very unlikely. https://www.kyivpost.com/post/51800
How do you measure the six months? If US agreed to send 12 months worth of equipment and there is not additional support agreed to within that period, does this resolve No after the first 6 months? Or do we have to wait for 18 months?
Further question: what’s the minimum threshold to reach “assistance”? Access to satellite data is enough?
@capybara If the US does not send anything for 6 months, for the purposes of this market I'll consider the U.S. to have stopped supporting Ukraine regardless of the level of support before these 6 months. The support has to be military equipment, e.g. https://www.state.gov/united-states-announces-significant-new-military-assistance-for-ukraine-6. Access to satellite date does not qualify as sending military assistance to Ukraine.