Will an AI-generated paper be accepted into Nature by 2025? | Manifold

Will an AI-generated paper be accepted into Nature by 2025?

Plus

42

Ṁ1449

2026

23%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

The date on this is wrong

How much prompting is allowed for this to still resolve YES? If human researchers give the AI their notes to write into a paper, does that count?

@HarlanStewart Yes, your example would count.

Does this include only the flagship journal, or also things like "Nature Physics"?

@ScottLawrence Only the flagship journal.

bought Ṁ100 NO from 25% to 22%

Related questions

Will an AI be able to write a passable novel before 2028?

Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028?

-5% 1d65% chance

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2028?

will a paper released in 2025 by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author?

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2025?

Will a published research paper be revealed to have been written by an AI before 2025?

Will a paper fully created by AI be accepted into Nature by 2030?

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2026?

-9% 1d42% chance

Will an AI write anything that interests me by June 2025?

-28% 1d22% chance

Will a paper solely authored by an AI research agent receive at least 100 citations by EOY 2025?

Related questions

Will an AI be able to write a passable novel before 2028?

Will a published research paper be revealed to have been written by an AI before 2025?

Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028?

Will a paper fully created by AI be accepted into Nature by 2030?

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2028?

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2026?

will a paper released in 2025 by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author?

Will an AI write anything that interests me by June 2025?

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2025?

Will a paper solely authored by an AI research agent receive at least 100 citations by EOY 2025?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules