Creator note: Feel free to add options, resolves according to OFFICIAL Spanish sources, each option resolves independently whenever is announced or ruled out.
Resolution criteria:
Each option will resolve as follows:
"It's declared a cyber attack": Resolves "Yes" if Spanish authorities officially declare that the power outage was caused by a cyber attack.
"Cyber attack & Russia-funded": Resolves "Yes" if the cyber attack is officially attributed to a group funded by Russia.
"Cyber attack & USA-funded": Resolves "Yes" if the cyber attack is officially attributed to a group funded by the USA.
"Cyber attack & independent group": Resolves "Yes" if the cyber attack is officially attributed to an independent group with no state funding.
"Intern plugged wrong cable": Resolves "Yes" if the outage is officially attributed to human error, such as an intern misconnecting cables.
"Never found root cause": Resolves "Yes" if, after a reasonable period (e.g., six months), no official cause for the outage is determined.
"Bad weather": Resolves "Yes" if the outage is officially attributed to adverse weather conditions.
"Accidental infrastructure damage (fallen tower, wildlife, etc)": Resolves "Yes" if the outage is officially attributed to unintentional physical damage to infrastructure, such as a fallen tower or wildlife interference.
"Intended infrastructure damage (cable cut, bomb, etc)": Resolves "Yes" if the outage is officially attributed to deliberate physical damage to infrastructure, such as sabotage.
If multiple causes are officially identified, each relevant option will resolve "Yes." If none of the listed causes are officially identified, all options will resolve "No."
Background:
On April 28, 2025, Spain and Portugal experienced a massive power outage that disrupted essential services across the Iberian Peninsula. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez reported a sudden loss of 15 gigawatts—about 60% of Spain's demand—in just five seconds. By April 29, 2025, power was nearly fully restored, but the exact cause remained unidentified. Authorities ruled out cyberattacks and meteorological causes, and investigations are ongoing. (apnews.com)
Considerations:
Given the unprecedented nature of the outage and the ongoing investigations, traders should monitor official statements from Spanish authorities for updates on the cause. Historical incidents, such as the 2024 cyberattack on Orange Spain due to weak passwords, highlight the potential for cyber vulnerabilities in critical infrastructure. (theregister.com)
Spain and Portugal Investigate Massive Power Outage:
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3.00@Choms It's not so crazy, that's some of the narrative in Spain and Portugal as well. The former president of electricity operator Red Eléctrica said "a sudden excess of renewable generation in the system could lead to strong voltage fluctuations in the grid, resulting in the loss of generation", and some experts in the topic sort of agree with this.
@TenShino "could" and "did" are different words :)
@vitamind I live here, I know how the grid is set up, we don't have 60% of generation in one place and nobody reported a spike, only a sudden loss of power (multi point within 5 seconds), also weather was perfect for both solar and wind generation in practically the whole peninsula (see pictures of ppl at terraces)
@Choms but renewables - particularly offshore - require pretty substantial modifications and upgrades to infrastructure. If that was not done properly, it is a reasonable cause of the black out.
@Choms True enough, but I wasn't claiming that was the reason, my point was just that it's not as crazy of a hypothesis as you may have thought since even the former president and other experts are entertaining the idea.
@TenShino it is not a crazy hipothesis but given the specific circumstances not one particularly likely, what I noticed though (and reason for my comment) is the overblown coverage to that particular hipothesis basically selling the "renewables bad" idea, like if countries in Europe (e.g. Austria) haven't been using 100% renewables for years without issues, and, as said, all the network here in EU is interconnected and they all undergo a lot of regulations and requirements, while there is ofc corruption and overspending, safety, and more in new installations, is generally enforced correctly
@Choms seems like a motte-and-bailey here. You state, "it's crazy that narrative in the US about blaming renewables but honestly at this point is fairly normal, not like I expect common sense anymore", and then go on to cede, "it is not a crazy hipothesis but given the specific circumstances not one particularly likely".
Can you provide some of the reports you seen that, according to you, baselessly suggested that renewables were to blame and thus the conclusion is "renewables bad"?
@vitamind do you realize there is a difference between the narrative and the hypothesis, right? like, the hypothesis may be reasonable, I conceded that, but the spoon-feeding with a clear focus on "renewables bad" by mainly US media (repeated by some others sure) is crazy - and if you need me to be more concise, people buying it specifically is what I would say it's crazy, if it wasn't because... well... the maniac doing maniacal things daily and people all happy about it 🤷♂️
@vitamind just what I said, multiples groups of assholes in different social networks trash talking renewables 😂 and linking at articles about this, honestly even techlinked jumped the gun on it and basically repeats the same bla bla bla than the rest of the media if you want to see their last video (and what the weather service said for sure there was no temperature variations)
Note: the description is AI gen, so far, to my knowledge, nothing has been officially ruled out (though weather service already spoke so that will probably resolve soon) https://x.com/AEMET_Esp/status/1917129786985533885