Update 2025-04-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Resolution Date: The market will be resolved on April 5, 2063.
Method: The current percentages will be frozen on that date and used to determine the outcome, effectively resolving the market as a poll.
Update 2025-04-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Update:
The percentages will now be frozen at a random time on April 5, 2063, rather than at a fixed moment.
This change is intended to help prevent last-minute manipulation.
The market will still resolve based on the percentages at the time of freezing, allowing traders to bet on their choices as planned.
1,000
3.00@TheAllMemeingEye I would like to just freeze the percentages on the 5th of April, 2063. Is this what you meant with "resolving to a poll"?
@CommanderKeen no that's resolving to probability, and is an infamously problematic resolution method due to its disconnection from any objective external criteria of the title question and the ease with which the resolution can be manipulated last minute by mana-wealthy users aka whales.
If you must use it, however, I would recommend resolving in like a week rather than several decades.
@TheAllMemeingEye What are alternative solutions for this problem if I want to keep the resolve date as is?
@CommanderKeen In that case, my recommendation would be to resolve to a poll i.e. in 2063 (assuming manifold still exists and works similarly to now) click/tap on the create question button that you did to create this market, but instead choose the poll option, and probably title it something like "Which is your favourite franchise, Star Trek or Star Wars?".
The current title for this market would still work for this, but might be even clearer if edited to "In 2063, will Manifold prefer Star Trek or Star Wars?".
@TheAllMemeingEye Thanks for your recommendation, but I want people to be able to put money on what they choose. I also think it's not a big problem if someone manipulates this score in 2063.
Now I'm thinking that maybe I should resolve this at a random time on that day, that could prevent some last-minute manipulations, couldn't it?
About the title: I kept it ambiguous intentionally, I feel it's an interesting question in several possible contexts and wanted to leave that open to the traders' interpretations
I want people to be able to put money on what they choose
Hmm, maybe the most similar market type to what you want is a Joshua style poll market i.e. having any number of yes shares in an option counts as a single vote for it, and the options resolve according to the balance of such votes, based on this hugely popular market by Joshua
However, it's worth noting that a significant fraction of traders will bet based on who they think will win regardless of whether that is their actual personal preference, forming a kind of Keynesian beauty contest, and this can create unexpected snowball effects.
Fundamentally a bet is incentivised by market structures to be a prediction of the resolution, hence the term prediction markets, if the intention is purely to create a poll where you have to pay to vote, with no actual verifiable future fact being predicted, you may find it is vastly less likely to draw attention than a standard free-to-vote poll or a market with actual predictive resolution criteria.