By 2026, will Openai commit to delaying model release if ARC Evals thinks it's dangerous?
Basic
6
Ṁ872026
28%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
By "commit" I mean publicly sign a formal document.
By "delaying" I mean until it passes ARC's benchmarks.
By "thinks it's dangerous" I mean some predefined benchmark for model capabilities and/or alignment.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
@YonatanCale That would be nice, but the market is only concerned with them committing in advance, so would not be enough to resolve YES.
Related questions
Related questions
Will Anthropic release a model that thinks before it responds like o1 from OpenAI by EOY 2024?
15% chance
Will OpenAI go back on its voluntary commitment to AISI to share major new models w/AISI prior to release?
38% chance
Will OpenAI allow near full access to the weights of their best-trained model to an external auditor by the end of 2030?
60% chance
Will OpenAI release a model better than GPT-4o without test time compute before EOY 2024?
74% chance
Will OpenAI release a technical report on a model designed for AI alignment research? (2024)
8% chance
When will OpenAI release a robotics model?
Will OpenAI have another public board issue before 2025?
13% chance
Will anyone be able to get OpenAI’s new model o1 to leak its system message by EOY 2024?
96% chance
Will OpenAI offer a model that updates its weights while running during 2025?
26% chance
Will OpenAI release the source code and model weights of any of its legacy GPT-3 models before 2025?
8% chance