Will Britain still use FPTP voting (and no other voting mechanisms) for picking MPs in 2040?
Will Britain still use FPTP voting (and no other voting mechanisms) for picking MPs in 2040?
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Revolves “no” if any voting mechanism other than “first past the post” voting is used to elect MPs before the deadline, and otherwise resolves “yes” on January 1st 2040.
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How would this resolve if you have a system with some MPs elected through first-past-the-post and some MPs elected in a different way (this is how the Scottish Parliament works)?
@lisamarsh It resolves “no” if any other voting algorithm is used to elect MPs. So if we used 50% FPTP and 50% DPR it would resolve to “no”. I’ve updated the title to clarify this, thanks!
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What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
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