Will fully autonomous vehicles be allowed on all roads in Illinois by 2060?
Will fully autonomous vehicles be allowed on all roads in Illinois by 2060?
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To clarify: If this were about San Francisco, would it already resolve YES today?
I’m not sure if restrictions to specific fleet operators are ok. I’m not sure if Waymo currently has road restrictions in SF. I’m not not sure if robotaxis are sufficient or if personal cars are needed. I’m not sure if you qualify Daimlers level 3 as „fully autonomous“.
"fully automatic vehicle" means "vehicle with a fully automatic transmission" to me, which means that the market should already be resolved as yes.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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