When will the human population drop below 1 billion
➕
Plus
69
Ṁ11k
2100
9%
Never
1.2%
2020s
4%
2030s
5%
2040s
3%
2050s
1.2%
2060s
0.9%
2070s
0.9%
2080s
0.9%
2090s
74%
After 2100

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

Does this include digital humans aka uploads?

@MartinRandall no, they don't count to the population of humans for this question.

How would you go about resolving "Never"?

@PedeJo it would have to clear that humanity will never drop below 1 billion. It's probably not possible for that to be the case. Especially given eventual heat death of the universe.

@Daniel_MC Shouldn't the "never" option include reliable indication that we will survive the death of the sun/earth, but specifically not deal with longer time horizons? Or else its a pointless question.

@DavidHiggs Once it’s time to resolve in 2100, no matter how long a future timeframe there will always be a non-zero probability of it happening, say within the following million years; or 100 years (2200) or even the following year (2101). It is not an impossibility, nor a contradiction in principle with zero probability. So it cannot ever resolve to “never”.

There is no need to presupose much more “certain” causes like the heat-death or cold-death of the universe. Even the most unlikely yet conceivable cause, if it is not a logical contradiction, is enough to resolve it to “after 2100” at that point.

Comment hidden
Comment hidden
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules