Resolution criteria

This market will resolve based on the highest magnitude earthquake occurring within the Campi Flegrei (Phlegraean Fields) region in Italy during the year 2025. The resolution will be determined using data from the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), which provides comprehensive seismic monitoring for the area. The specific magnitude ranges for resolution are:

• Up to 4.5

• 4.6 to 5.0

• 5.1 to 5.5

• 5.6 to 6.0

• More than 6.1

The highest recorded magnitude within the specified period will determine the outcome. If no earthquakes occur in 2025, the market will resolve to "Up to 4.5."

Background

The Campi Flegrei is a large volcanic caldera located west of Naples, Italy. It has experienced increased seismic activity in recent years, characterized by numerous small earthquakes and ground uplift. Notably, in March 2025 and latest on the 13. May 2025, a magnitude 4.4 earthquake was recorded in the region, marking the strongest event in 40 years. (amp.cnn.com)

Considerations

While the recent magnitude 4.4 earthquake is significant, experts from the INGV have indicated that such events do not necessarily imply an imminent volcanic eruption. However, the region's history of seismic activity suggests that monitoring is essential, as the potential for larger earthquakes cannot be entirely ruled out.