Conditional on Republican trifecta: will prescribing abortion pills be a US federal felony at the end of February 2025?
Plus
22
Ṁ3354Mar 2
5%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
https://twitter.com/alyssamvance/status/1734995576360443933
"Trifecta" here means "Republicans win the House, Senate, and Presidency". If they do not win a trifecta I will cancel the market. Otherwise I will resolve based on the non conditional version of this market.
The spirit of this question is "will the US make getting/giving/using abortion pills inevitably involve a federal felony", so it will resolve YES even if e.g. distributing (but not prescribing) becomes a felony.
See also:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
I bet "No", but February is doing a lot of work there. See related market for what if they have until the end of the congressional term.
Related questions
Related questions
Conditional on Republican trifecta: will prescribing abortion pills be a US federal felony at the end of December 2026?
7% chance
Will prescribing abortion pills be a US federal felony at the end of February 2025?
5% chance
If Trump gets elected, will prescribing abortion pills be a US federal felony at the end of February 2025?
10% chance
If a Republican wins the 2024 Presidential Election, how will abortion be restricted federally before 2027?
Will any US state ban the morning after pill before the end of 2030?
70% chance
Will the abortion drug "mifepristone" be banned nationwide before the end of 2024?
2% chance
Will abortion in the first trimester (ish) have substantive federal protection in 2040?
47% chance
Will the US institute a national ban on abortion anytime before 2035?
21% chance
If Trump is elected will the Comstock laws be used to ban the shipping of abortion pills by the end of 2026
47% chance
Will the Comstock Act be used against the shipping of abortion pills nationally before 2028?
47% chance