Will the Trump administration take specific actions undermining support for Taiwan during Trump's term (January 20, 2025 - January 20, 2029), with Marco Rubio as Secretary of State?
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve YES if ANY of the following occur during Trump's presidency with Rubio as Secretary of State:
Official Policy Changes:
Formal recognition of PRC sovereignty over Taiwan
Explicit withdrawal of previous US security commitments to Taiwan
Public statement by Trump or Secretary Rubio renouncing Taiwan Relations Act
Military/Security Support:
Reduction of >90% in total military aid compared to 2024 levels
Withdrawal of US military advisors from Taiwan reported or announced
Diplomatic Actions:
Closure of de facto embassy (American Institute in Taiwan)
Formal agreement with PRC limiting official US-Taiwan contacts
Public opposition to Taiwan's participation in international organizations
Resolution Conditions
Market resolves as N/A if:
Trump does not take office
Marco Rubio is not confirmed as Secretary of State
Update 2025-10-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will only consider actions taken during the period when both Trump is President in his second term and Rubio is serving as Secretary of State. If either Trump leaves office early or Rubio ceases to be Secretary of State, only actions taken during their overlapping tenure will count toward resolution.
1,000
3.00@EvanDaniel it’s specifically the combo of Trump in his second term and Rubio as his Secretary of State.