Will there be an AI "lost manuscript" hoax by the end of 2025?
Plus
19
Ṁ4542026
42%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
By the end of 2025, will there be a hoax where the mainsteam media (as subjectively defined by me) reports on the discovery of a lost piece of writing by a famous writer, only for it to be later revealed that it was generated by a LLM? Both the report and the revelation that it was a hoax must occur after the creation of this market and before the cutoff point (December 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM).
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will an AI be able to write a passable novel before 2028?
72% chance
Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?
39% chance
Will a published research paper be revealed to have been written by an AI before 2025?
75% chance
Will a book claimed to be written by an AI make the NYT best seller list before the end of 2025?
43% chance
Will I (co)write an AI safety research paper by the end of 2024?
45% chance
Will an "AI Safety Textbook" be available before the end of 2024?
37% chance
Will a publisher release a novel advertised as being AI-generated in the style of very popular dead author, b4 EOY 2024?
40% chance
Will greater than one "AI Safety Textbook" be released before the end of 2024?
29% chance
Will any best-selling work of fiction be written entirely by an AI by April of 2028?
47% chance
By the end of 2024, will at least one >50 karma LW post be revealed to have been mostly written by AI?
50% chance