Will Alzheimer’s be cured by 2040?
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By cured, I mean an FDA-approved treatment that halts the deterioration in cognitive decline in at least 75% of cases
Dec 25, 10:46pm: Will Alzheimer’s be cured by 2040? → Will Alzheimer’s be cured by 2040?
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Would early detection and treatment suffice, if it does not necessarily work after onset of substantial symptoms? Specifically, if a reliable early detection methodology arises, would you consider early-detected cases to be part of your total set from which you measure 75%?
Does this have to be for all forms of Alzheimer's, regardless of cause? Broad efficacy in 80% of cases? What is the bar?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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