Will the US be a democracy in 2040?
Will the US be a democracy in 2040?
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17
Ṁ7002041
85%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
As classified by their polity score https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polity_data_series#Scores_for_2018
Close date updated to 2041-01-01 6:59 pm
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I don't think a 10 is likely, but for clarity does this resolve YES for any score greater than 5, or strictly from 6 thru 9 inclusive?
US "really" being a dictatorship does not seem plausible to me at this point, but a downgrade by Polity is plausible because it has already happened once.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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