Will any of the four big chains carry a pizza with vegan crust, sauce, and cheese available in most of their locations by the end of December 2024?
The big four chains are currently Dominoes, Pizza Hut, Little Caesar's, and Papa John's; if a new pizza place knocks one of these out of the top four, the new chain will be eligible to resolve this as YES if it offers an eligible pizza.
1,000
3.00@ForrestTaylor I'm tempted to do the same, which would move the market from 8% to 91%.
But I'd only get $6 due to loans, so I guess I'll stay in.
@LucaMasters Temporary 1k no orders at 40, 50, 60, 70 in case you still want to sell
@NicoDelon Well the important part of the definition is that it’s edible food. Unlike what those chains sell.
/s
@mariopasquato The question is not about true Neapolitan pizza though. (I agree these four chains don’t make good pizza but that’s not the question.)
@NicoDelon It becomes hard to define pizza while also allowing major departures from the original (note that claiming that these guidelines capture the ‘original’ meaning of pizza, whatever that may be, is already questionable; still…). Having tried Dominos and Pizza Hut I can say that German Flammkuchen or Georgian Khachapuri is closer to pizza than what those companies serve. Still we don’t call those specialties pizza but we do call the chains “pizza” pizza. Power of marketing.
@mariopasquato Just in case anyone was wondering, for the purposes of this market, what the four big chains carry is pizza.
Sorry, America just be like that.
@NicoDelon @PersonMan That's real unfortunate for PersonMan, was it like an extra-zero-on-the-buy kind of mistake followed by a panicked sell? I've definitely done it too.
@NicoDelon easy mana. Even if some locations start carrying it, there's only a very small chance that it gets rolled out to a "majority of locations across the US."
I think this is overvalued at 30%, so I keep buying.
@PersonMan0326 What makes the US so special compared to e.g. the UK, Germany or South Korea?
@NicoDelon I'm not sure about "special," we just don't have a ton of vegan options outside of major cities and California. It's not very popular, and if it's not going to make them money then they won't stick it in the majority of their locations, they'll carry it in their California locations.
@PersonMan0326 Several chains offer vegan cheese at most of their locations nationally, just not those four. Burger King serves Impossible at every single one of their locations.
@NicoDelon Well, that's not vegan cheese, that's a vegan burger patty.
And if you're a smaller chain, then you can craft your own niche of course; you can be "that chain with vegan cheese" to stand out. That's not surprising to me.
@PersonMan0326 I’m not saying they face the same economic deal as the top chains. I’m just countering your suggestion that it doesn’t make sense to offer (or that there aren’t) vegan options outside of New York and California.
But okay, what makes cheese special then? I’m genuinely curious!
@NicoDelon well, a major difference between stocking impossible burgers vs vegan cheese is that impossible patties keep frozen for near a year, and vegan cheese stays good frozen for a couple months.
If these companies anticipate any significant amount of waste, then they won't spring for the investment.
@PersonMan0326 There’s money coming into frozen vegan pizza anyway! https://manifold.markets/Duncn/will-vegan-pizza-be-commonly-availa#J41vS8c2Uw2R0S7V8q4u
@NicoDelon frozen pizza is a different story. It becomes a fight over shelf space, because the frozen grocery isle is really competitive, and really scarce.
You could sell frozen pizza from your own online store I suppose, but you're missing out on the bulk of the grocery market.
@NicoDelon it looks like, to me, money into R&D, that they aren't expecting a return on in the near future.
@NicoDelon Well, to this question, I say maybe 1/4 chains take up the vegan cheese mantle. 1/4 puts me at 25%, and the maybe shoves me down to like 20-22%.
I'll probably keep buying until it's around there, so if you think I'm wrong feel free to make a bunch of mana off of me!
@PersonMan0326 1/4 of the top four chains or 1/4 of a chain? 51% of one chain is enough for this to resolve yes.
@NicoDelon True, I realized after pressing enter that the bulk of my attitude isn't about whether or not they will carry vegan cheese, it's how soon they will, and how ubiquitously available it will be.