Dwarkesh could do the funniest thing right now

Why is MrBeast so high, even if there is insider info that he was going to come on the show? MrBeast could be considered bigger than Mark Zuckerberg in some ways, but the phrasing 'biggest guest by far' implies a kind of unambiguous dominance that I don't think holds

@galaga he's probably biggest-by-far in terms of advertisement interest, idk

@galaga i do not think "unambiguous dominance" applies to almost anyone on the list? that's an unreasonable bar, given the context is just "Dwarkesh hyping up a guest to advertisers", some hyperbole is acceptable.

mr beast imo has a fairly strong case because he is reasonably distinct from other options. musk (let alone bezos/gates) is very big, but there is a pretty natural comparison between him & zuckerberg. there isn't another guest that is remotely similar to mr beast (& as jim says, he is an obvious draw for advertisers, arguably moreso than the tech ceos)

@Ziddletwix these are good points, though I would argue that Musk and Gates dominate his previous guests by being in the same vertical but higher, whereas MrBeast is somewhat not comparable

Plus if the take is about advertising revenue from the increased viewer draw, unclear what Dwarkesh can advertise to MrBeast type viewers that MrBeast has not captured himself

@Ziddletwix I think Obama would be pretty unambiguously the biggest guest

@dominic I’d agree with that, although I believe earlier some brits bristled at the idea because of tony Blair

https://open.substack.com/pub/thegeneralist/p/dwarkesh-patel?r=di5yu&utm_medium=ios

Curious why Barack is so low. He's cool, isn't he?

If it's not Robert Caro I'm boycotting

May 5, 2025

https://x.com/dwarkesh_sp/status/1919478551386194162

@AndrewG He's the only option I bought (a drop admittedly)

Dwarkesh is obsessed with him

Here is a market for whether he will get Caro this year

/BoltonBailey/which-of-these-people-will-appear-o

Why was Mr. Beast trading so high before the market closed?

@Simon74fe That is now @EricNeyman ’s fourth largest position (MrBeast YES). Either he has insider info or he was manipulating the market to avoid demotion as the league season end nears. Or some secret third thing. Eric?

Can @mods take over this market please? I don't really understand why there's a reason to leave market management and resolution up to an essentially inactive creator, after the market gets this large.

@bens Ohhhhhh wait I misread the market history, I thought he chose to suddenly close it but it seems he set it months ago to arbitrarily close now. Yeah, should clearly be re-opened in that case.

@Joshua As for taking over resolution, we can ask him what to do about it at Lighthaven.

What’s going on?

@MachiNi I assume some sort of shenanigans? Seems a shame for this market to be closed for trading soooo

Can we just N/A this because it seems like we will never find out?

@SorenJ the Manifold team is close with Dwarkesh so at some stage they're able the ask him. we wouldn't just NA a market of this size and would hope to find any other option to avoid that if possible.

someone will accost him at Manifest in a couple weeks

@jim Added an answer here: https://manifold.markets/Joshua/manifest-2025-prop-bets

@ian If Dwarkesh is under obligation not to reveal the name, how can the manifold team resolve this to the name of the person? That would automatically be grounds for NA. Like someone said earlier, this is definitely a cursed market

@PoliticalEconomyPK At some point I think he'll reveal it, but no idea when that will be

@SorenJ if the tweet was attention bait (obviously was) it should resolve as No for everyone