Will Ron Desantis ever be president of the United States?
Will Ron Desantis ever be president of the United States?
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Resolves YES is Ron Desantis ever serves as president of the United States before he dies.
fun edge case:
resolves YES if this office is obtained via coupe and military forces under his command control at least the current borders of the city of Washington DC
Resolves NO if Ron Desantis dies before serving as president of the United States
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@evergreenemily you run out of cash again? 😆 you know my offer still stands (and you didn't have to return so much so early!)
@Stralor Only because I made an absolute monster of a market. I'm expecting trader bonuses from it to give me a lot of liquidity pretty quickly (right now it's close to 1 mana per second, even.) Thank you for the offer, though!
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
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