in effect, gender would be treated like race/ethnicity or sexual orientation currenly is in 2023

So, as the basis of covert discrimination?

This question does not express or imply any political view, nor do I wish to support or oppose such an outcome or any other outcome.

To me the market should be 99%: why would governments continue to control a characteristics which has no legal consequence and can be changed relatively easily?

Is that should be in the normative or descriptive sense

Purely descriptive. I believe that this is going to happen but I express no opinion if this is a good or bad thing.

@ElBaltringo Status quo bias is strong, and legal gender is very Lindy :) If society takes on a different view I'd guess 60 years, not 30. If there is no push to change a policy I have no reason to expect it will be.