Is there anyone really interested in buying Tadej Yes at like 92-94% range? Like a lot of it?

@Eliza 50k up for 2 hours at 92 and 91, not willing to go higher tho

@brod looks like I just missed you. I will put some No 92 right now

I believe I just saw Jonas mouth 'fuck'

welp

Putting 1000M on Healy NO at 1.4%, to win around 15, is crazy to me. We saw in the women's event last year how crazy stuff can happen. Why would someone do that for such a low reward?

@SteveSokolowski I'd bet much more than 1000 mana on Healy No, even at 1%. If we're living in a world where you think Healy has a 1.4% chance of winning, then Roglic, Lipowitz, Remco, Matteo, etc. are all much much much higher than 1.4%.

It's still not clear whether Healy will attempt to maintain a top 10 on GC, but even if he does, he will lose at least 20 minutes. Make a market about whether Healy will finish within an hour of the winner on GC.

@SteveSokolowski Hilarious comment to make an hour before he loses three minutes on not even the final climb of the first mountain day. Kasia had a long history of being a strong mountain climber; Healy is very definitely not that.

@Eliza The implication of putting 1000M on NO is that if the race were run for 75 years, there would never be a single time that Healy would win. That just doesn't make sense.

Even if you believe that there would never be any bad days, injuries, or anything else for the leaders in those 75 years, that's a ridiculous amount of "net worth" to risk for such a low reward.

@SteveSokolowski I truly believe that running the same race 75 times, Healy will never win. I almost never, across my entire Manifold history, place No bets below ~10%. But in this case I have a huge amount more knowledge and information than the average topic.

For Healy to win, it would require not just one rider to have a problem, but an entire class of 25 riders.

As far as "1000 Mana" goes....I save my mana the entire year so I can deploy as much of it as possible at the Tour de France.

@SteveSokolowski even if Pogi, Jonas, and Remco crashed, there are about 20 guys that are much better than Healy at GC and that in a single HC climb can distance him with 3 minutes easily

@SteveSokolowski i would take ben o'connor over healy in GC : )

@Eliza 2500 No order on Pogacar at 80% for the next 12 hours.

This looks really lopsided but I actually have 12,500 shares of Yes on Tadej in the other market, and 13,000 shares of No on Tadej in JAAM's.

As promised, a new version of the same market: fewer options, more liquidity. And set up just in time for the Dauphine to get spicy!

vvvvv click here vvvvv

/Eliza/who-will-win-the-2025-tour-de-franc-R5sqNdAUuN

^^^^^ click here ^^^^^

I am changing the title of this market slightly -- I guarantee both markets will resolve the same.

Remco at 3% is a bargain imo

I plan to create a new version of this market with fewer answers and more liquidity, in a couple weeks once we're pretty confident about startlists.

The team of Vingegaard has been in the news in the last few days saying he's the best he's ever been. It's on!

So far Tadej won a lot of stuff, but only one of those was a stage race.

Sources indicate he may race the Dauphine as a warm up before the Tour.

More important news: the official route is out https://www.cyclingweekly.com/news/tour-de-france-route-all-you-need-to-know

Other than an ITT on stage 5, it looks like nothing will be decided until the end of the second week. Then things get crazy, Thursday Hautacam, Friday totally uphill ITT, Saturday almost 5K of climbing ending on Superbagnères (12.4km at 7.5%). I think by then we should almost know who will win.

I made a simple Yes/No market for Pogi winning to try to get it to sweepstakes

BTW the market above is now on sweepstakes (redeemable for cash)

Updating a little bit down on Jonas, since there are rumors going around (https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/jonas-vingegaard-to-ride-the-2025-giro-ditalia-definitely-maybe/) that he will go to the Giro. I assume that Pogi will like Tour/Vuelta next year, so would be more rested for the Tour.

Also time to start discussion for Giro too:

I thought this was 2024 because it resolves July :(

@Eliza I imagine you're intention is for July next year, right?

Fixed