Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve when a new Pope is officially elected following either:

1. The death of Pope Francis

2. The resignation of Pope Francis

The market will resolve in favor of whichever cardinal is elected as the next Pope by the College of Cardinals and accepts the position. If the elected Pope chooses a name not previously associated with their cardinal name, resolution will still be based on their identity as a cardinal.

Considerations

• The timing of the next papal succession is uncertain, as Pope Francis has not indicated plans to resign

• Historical precedent suggests that frequently mentioned frontrunners often do not become Pope

• The conclave process is strictly confidential, making it difficult to gauge cardinal voting intentions

• The last two papal elections (Benedict XVI and Francis) both resulted in somewhat unexpected choices

• While these candidates are currently considered leading contenders, other cardinals not listed could emerge as viable candidates when the conclave occurs